Russian Invasion

Billsballbag

Billsballbag

Roofer
Hopefully this won’t dissolve into the usual nonsense hence not putting it on the politics forum but I‘m interested in hearing peoples take on this in comparison to what is being reported.

Particularly those who have a military knowledge.

It appears to me that press reports are a little too triumphant about the Russians failures to take control of airspace and reports on troop morale and logistic failures.

He‘d obviously gone mad but I can’t share such optimism unless his inner circle take him out.
 
Best hope is to financially ruin them. If that happens you would hope that the Russian citizens will have the courage to revolt against his regime
 
The financial sanctions do appear impressive and with BP turning it in there appears to be a rush from all corporates to pull out.

I hate social media but that’s one good thing about this virtue signalling age. It’ll help spread those sanctions.
 
On a military front there is no way the Ukraine's will defy the Russians. That said when they conquer the country that won't be the end of their problems. The Ukrainian people have already demonstrated their pride, and the Russians will never enjoy piece as long as Ukrainian people remain on that soil.
I have nothing but total admiration for their courage in the face of the overpowering odds against them
 
Same here, they’re incredible and their leader is totally inspiring. The situation is heart breaking.

However, I don’t agree that it is a lost cause. If the donated arms food and medical equipment reach where is necessary in time their resolve could see through surely. The Russians can’t afford a long drawn out war if morale disappears and the economy is bankrupt?
 
The problem is what happens when a deluded lunatic is cornered and as control of the largest nuclear weapons in the world ?
Doesn't bare thinking about, I hope someone within can overthrow him.
 
Billsballbag said:
Hopefully this won’t dissolve into the usual nonsense hence not putting it on the politics forum but I‘m interested in hearing peoples take on this in comparison to what is being reported.

Particularly those who have a military knowledge.

It appears to me that press reports are a little too triumphant about the Russians failures to take control of airspace and reports on troop morale and logistic failures.

He‘d obviously gone mad but I can’t share such optimism unless his inner circle take him out.
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His inner circle won’t take him out. It never happens.
 
Billsballbag said:
The financial sanctions do appear impressive and with BP turning it in there appears to be a rush from all corporates to pull out.

I hate social media but that’s one good thing about this virtue signalling age. It’ll help spread those sanctions.
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The Economist Money Talks podcast has just published a good edition explaining how these sanctions impact and discussing their effectiveness.
 
sixthswan said:
You’d have to hope that any unilateral instructions from the Cheget, are ignored by General Staff…
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The simple problem is they’re all old and may feel so cornered that it’s a case of ‘fuck it’, if we’re going, we’ll take the west with us.
 
Putin won't sanction a withdrawal that looks like a defeat because that could finish him domestically. So he will need something that will enable him to claim victory. The problem is, Ukraine (quite rightly) does not believe it should give him anything and the rest of the world won't want to reward aggression. This impasse could last for a while. Meanwhile, the sanctions will do serious damage to Russia's already-fragile economy while Putin burns billions of dollars every day on this stupid invasion. This is what happens when an autocratic leader surrounds himself with sycophants that tell him what he wants to hear ("we'll be in Kiev in 72 hours!", "the US and Europe will grumble about it but ultimately won't do much", etc) rather than the harsh truth - ie, that his dream of rebuilding the Soviet Union is a ridiculous delusion.
 
I wonder if perhaps China might take this as the opportunity to step up onto the world stage and act as peacemaker. Whilst one can see Putin being bloody-minded towards efforts from the west to find solutions, he might be more open to pressure from his chum in the east. Otherwise it is hard to see any solution that isn't deeply unpleasant and long-lasting.
 
It is for the West to create the conditions by which Putin can opt for peace.
Offering the hand of EU membership to Ukraine, was a stupid thing to do.
Strangely a good result for Putin, would be that Ukraine commits to remaining neutral from NATO and EU influence.
Which it already was, at least in terms of membership.
 
Putin's intentions seem clear to me at this point. He will occupy eastern Ukraine by force and install a Russian dominated puppet state. Roughly speaking this will be all of Ukraine east of the Dneiper, this area contains all of the border with Russia.

That sorts out his 'security issues' and also protects ethnic Russians in the far south east, the only question is whether Putin will want to go as far as the port of Odessa which Russia wants several reasons.

Ukraine west of the Dneiper will be independent but neutral, guaranteed by Russia and the USA. That is the only practical outcome.
 
sixthswan said:
It is for the West to create the conditions by which Putin can opt for peace.
Offering the hand of EU membership to Ukraine, was a stupid thing to do.
Strangely a good result for Putin, would be that Ukraine commits to remaining neutral from NATO and EU influence.
Which it already was, at least in terms of membership.
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If you had Russia breathing down your neck, wouldn't you want to join the EU and NATO? Why should Russia get to dictate what alliances another country forms? Why should Putin be rewarded for this barbaric invasion?
 
Putin made it clear the best part of 20 years ago that he would not allow any country that has a land border with Russia to join Nato, which in reality means the EU as well. Ukraine was always going to be in that position.

The 2014 coup in Ukraine though billed as a pro-democracy populist movement was driven and largely financed by the US, the new government supported attacks on ethnic Russians in the far southwest and thousands of civilians are reported to have died.

This gave Putin another pretext to interfere which became inevitable given the political position of the EU in supporting the move to bring Ukraine further into Europe. A 'neural' Ukraine was the only sensible solution, unfortunate for Ukraine but their geographic position made that inevitable.
 
AFCDorset said:
Putin made it clear the best part of 20 years ago that he would not allow any country that has a land border with Russia to join Nato, which in reality means the EU as well. Ukraine was always going to be in that position.

The 2014 coup in Ukraine though billed as a pro-democracy populist movement was driven and largely financed by the US, the new government supported attacks on ethnic Russians in the far southwest and thousands of civilians are reported to have died.

This gave Putin another pretext to interfere which became inevitable given the political position of the EU in supporting the move to bring Ukraine further into Europe. A 'neural' Ukraine was the only sensible solution, unfortunate for Ukraine but their geographic position made that inevitable.
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Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland all border Russia and are all in NATO.
 
ClaphamFox said:
Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland all border Russia and are all in NATO.
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You are correct but, Poland and Lithuania only border in a 'technical' sense because of the Kaliningrad Oblast. Norway's border in the high Arctic is irrelevant leaving Latvia and Estonia as the only Nato states with a real border with Russia.
Pen4 said:
And he he takes Ukraine he will have a border with more NATO Countries because of it
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Which is why I suggested that Putin will only 'take' Ukraine to the east of the Dnieper leaving western Ukraine as a buffer. Look at the map, it makes perfect sense.
 
ClaphamFox said:
This makes for grim reading. It seems that Putin is hellbent on taking over the whole of Ukraine and is still banging on about 'denazification'. I'm becoming more and more convinced that he really has gone mad...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499392485197451268
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Some fascinating and frightening stuff from various commentators this week .
One suggested Putin became totally isolated by fear of Covid - hence the bizarre pictures of him talking to his advisers separated by a huge long table .
Hence has had months to brood and nurture his paranoia and plot his bloodbath.

Another reflects on his bloated appearance, suggesting he is on steroids and possibly has become totally irational .

If the reports are true he has withdrawn to a bunker in Siberia it’s truly terrifying what comes next .
 
Face it. It isn't going to end well.

Sanctions only work if you actually enforce them too.
 
The most frustrating matter is that the fuckers convoy is a sitting duck. Without his nuclear threat it would take NATO and US air forces 24 hours to stop the war.
 
AFCDorset said:
Putin made it clear the best part of 20 years ago that he would not allow any country that has a land border with Russia to join Nato, which in reality means the EU as well. Ukraine was always going to be in that position.

The 2014 coup in Ukraine though billed as a pro-democracy populist movement was driven and largely financed by the US, the new government supported attacks on ethnic Russians in the far southwest and thousands of civilians are reported to have died.

This gave Putin another pretext to interfere which became inevitable given the political position of the EU in supporting the move to bring Ukraine further into Europe. A 'neural' Ukraine was the only sensible solution, unfortunate for Ukraine but their geographic position made that inevitable.
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Sounds about the same as Owen Jones’s view.
 
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