Yes you are Ibbo, as they could drop points against all 3... football is 11 men v 11 men, pedantic I know, but it's what makes the game very interesting!If Liverpool win at Man Utd, does that make them favourites to get 4th place ?
I think it probably does, as they have West brom, Burnley, C.Palace to follow.
Am I wrong ?
Top 4 was 5/6 before last night and as Shane say's 1/4 now. Bookies are never ever wrong.Current odds 1/4 to make top 4 which has an implied probability of 80%. If Liverpool win at Man Utd that figure will still be well over 50% so no they won’t be favs.
It is massive. We are lucky that as a club Man United will because of the fierce rivalry not want Liverpool to succeed. A little bit like the Chelsea Tottenham clash.Liverpool are the only threat. Their game against Man Utd is huge for us.
Spot on. Unless either of these inexplicably break out of their stupors because of relegation &/or being managed by guys who must surely relishing their retirement plans, then I'd expect Liverpool to gain a full 6 from these 2 matches.They might not be great by Liverpool standards but they are more than capable of stuffing a relegated West Brom, and a Palace that are on the beach and who conceded 3 to Southampton last night.
Until it's impossible there will always be that doubt.
Spot on. Unless either of these inexplicably break out of their stupors because of relegation &/or being managed by guys who must surely relishing their retirement plans, then I'd expect Liverpool to gain a full 6 from these 2 matches.
Guess that would also be dependent on the financial rewards gained from finishing higher? Kinda means there’s no dead matches.I dont think Spurs, or anyone else, will want to finish 7th
This will ensure qualification into the 'Conference' league with trips to shiteholes in the arse end of Europe with very little prestige at the end of it.
If, for example, on the final day, Spurs need a point or more to finish 7th whereas a defeat would confine them to 8th, I dont think they'll be trying too hard to succeed.
Obviously same goes for another team in that position.
I think there is an outcome where us and Chelsea would need a point each to qualify for champions league.Guess that would also be dependent on the financial rewards gained from finishing higher? Kinda means there’s no dead matches.
I think there is an outcome where us and Chelsea would need a point each to qualify for champions league.
The present free market exchange price is 1.27/1.28 (2/7) Probability 78% of making it and 4.5 (7/2) that we don’t 22% chance. Margin or not it’s pretty close to the mark.Bear in mind that odds given by bookies, never reflect the true probability of something happening.
Their profit margin is included in the odds.
Liverpool are the only threat. Their game against Man Utd is huge for us.
Might be a good thing we rallied late in the Newcastle and West Ham games yet. Suspect we’d probably be edged out if it went to GD though as it would mean 3 more wins for Lpool.The terrible thing is this could easily go down to GD
If Chelsea beat Arsenal, then we drop to 4th - hence we then become the team that Liverpool will want to catch.I actually thought would it be better for Chelsea to beat Arsenal ?That way a draw between us and them would probably satisfy both. If Chelsea lost to Arsenal, they will be full on wanting to beat us.
538 website, run by a former professional sports gambler, Nate Silver, who is very into Bayesian probabilities, and builds models for everything, has us as 80% likely to qualify from here. Wouldn't be surprised if the bookies use his site and model to help them adjust oddsThe present free market exchange price is 1.27/1.28 (2/7) Probability 78% of making it and 4.5 (7/2) that we don’t 22% chance. Margin or not it’s pretty close to the mark.
That doesn’t mean we will get in but on all known probability we would make top four 78 times out of 100 from present situation.
This is not gospel and people usually get captain hindsight after the fact on it but we are very strong favourites however you look at it. The odds aren’t wracked by superstition or pessimism.
That said at one stage we were 1/50 to make the top 4 last season
If Chelsea beat Arsenal, then we drop to 4th - hence we then become the team that Liverpool will want to catch.
In fact if Chelsea win, they might even think 2nd is possible (depending of course on the outcome of Man U / Liverpool match), so I can’t see them easing off for us in any instance.
So my view is we need Arsenal to show up tonight & for Man U to beat Liverpool.
Anyone else’s head hurting?!