But Liverpool...

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Ibbo

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If Liverpool win at Man Utd, does that make them favourites to get 4th place ?
I think it probably does, as they have West brom, Burnley, C.Palace to follow.
Am I wrong ?
 
Ibbo said:
If Liverpool win at Man Utd, does that make them favourites to get 4th place ?
I think it probably does, as they have West brom, Burnley, C.Palace to follow.
Am I wrong ?
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Yes you are Ibbo, as they could drop points against all 3... football is 11 men v 11 men, pedantic I know, but it's what makes the game very interesting!
 
Burnley is far from a gimme in fact I'd say the clarets were just as likely if not more to get a result
 
Current odds 1/4 to make top 4 which has an implied probability of 80%. If Liverpool win at Man Utd that figure will still be well over 50% so no they won’t be favs.
 
shanetko said:
Current odds 1/4 to make top 4 which has an implied probability of 80%. If Liverpool win at Man Utd that figure will still be well over 50% so no they won’t be favs.
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Top 4 was 5/6 before last night and as Shane say's 1/4 now. Bookies are never ever wrong.
 
Bear in mind that odds given by bookies, never reflect the true probability of something happening.

Their profit margin is included in the odds.

Liverpool are the only threat. Their game against Man Utd is huge for us.
 
sixthswan said:
Liverpool are the only threat. Their game against Man Utd is huge for us.
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It is massive. We are lucky that as a club Man United will because of the fierce rivalry not want Liverpool to succeed. A little bit like the Chelsea Tottenham clash.
Burnley imo are the only question mark for Liverpool, so any points taken off them will be crucial.
If either Man United or Burnley get a draw then our destiny is in our hands going into the Spuds game
 
What you are all forgetting to understand is that as of right buckin now Liverpool are not that buckin good.
They are likely to raise their buckin game against United and buck the job up elsewhere.
In their last game the beardy bucker in goal kept them in it
 
They might not be great by Liverpool standards but they are more than capable of stuffing a relegated West Brom, and a Palace that are on the beach and who conceded 3 to Southampton last night.
Until it's impossible there will always be that doubt.
 
Brauny said:
They might not be great by Liverpool standards but they are more than capable of stuffing a relegated West Brom, and a Palace that are on the beach and who conceded 3 to Southampton last night.
Until it's impossible there will always be that doubt.
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Spot on. Unless either of these inexplicably break out of their stupors because of relegation &/or being managed by guys who must surely relishing their retirement plans, then I'd expect Liverpool to gain a full 6 from these 2 matches.
 
Mistryman said:
Spot on. Unless either of these inexplicably break out of their stupors because of relegation &/or being managed by guys who must surely relishing their retirement plans, then I'd expect Liverpool to gain a full 6 from these 2 matches.
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I agree. That's why a draw against Man United would be a big result for us.
It may well depend what Tottenham have left to play for, to how easy or difficult our final game will be.
 
I suspect spurtz will deffo have some sort of uefa revenue to play for, and we all know Kane's LCFC habit – regardless of how shit people think the team / manager are.
Last night only gets us to the half hour mark, IMHO.
 
I dont think Spurs, or anyone else, will want to finish 7th
This will ensure qualification into the 'Conference' league with trips to shiteholes in the arse end of Europe with very little prestige at the end of it.
If, for example, on the final day, Spurs need a point or more to finish 7th whereas a defeat would confine them to 8th, I dont think they'll be trying too hard to succeed.
Obviously same goes for another team in that position.
 
tudor_fox said:
I dont think Spurs, or anyone else, will want to finish 7th
This will ensure qualification into the 'Conference' league with trips to shiteholes in the arse end of Europe with very little prestige at the end of it.
If, for example, on the final day, Spurs need a point or more to finish 7th whereas a defeat would confine them to 8th, I dont think they'll be trying too hard to succeed.
Obviously same goes for another team in that position.
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Guess that would also be dependent on the financial rewards gained from finishing higher? Kinda means there’s no dead matches.
 
I think everyone knew that even a few weeks ago ( I think it was wints) saying 68 is the magic number. Before last night we’d put ourselves into a dodgy place by screwing up the last two games. A draw last night wouldn’t have helped much heaping even more pressure on us getting 4 more points. Now we potentially need just 2. But it needs Liverpool not to win tomorrow night. A draw would be ok. A loss excellent. If they win it could well mean that even 69 won’t be enough. But they need to turn up big time. Let’s see.
 
I actually thought would it be better for Chelsea to beat Arsenal ?That way a draw between us and them would probably satisfy both. If Chelsea lost to Arsenal, they will be full on wanting to beat us.
 
Outfoxed said:
I think there is an outcome where us and Chelsea would need a point each to qualify for champions league. 👀
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It’s basically if Chelsea win tonight and Liverpool only get 1 win from their next two games. So lose tomorrow and yes an amicable draw would suffice for both clubs.
 
sixthswan said:
Bear in mind that odds given by bookies, never reflect the true probability of something happening.

Their profit margin is included in the odds.

Liverpool are the only threat. Their game against Man Utd is huge for us.
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The present free market exchange price is 1.27/1.28 (2/7) Probability 78% of making it and 4.5 (7/2) that we don’t 22% chance. Margin or not it’s pretty close to the mark.

That doesn’t mean we will get in but on all known probability we would make top four 78 times out of 100 from present situation.

This is not gospel and people usually get captain hindsight after the fact on it but we are very strong favourites however you look at it. The odds aren’t wracked by superstition or pessimism.

That said at one stage we were 1/50 to make the top 4 last season 😃
 
LGFOX said:
The terrible thing is this could easily go down to GD
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Might be a good thing we rallied late in the Newcastle and West Ham games yet. Suspect we’d probably be edged out if it went to GD though as it would mean 3 more wins for Lpool.
 
If it comes down to goal difference, I can't see any possible way that we'd have better than the scallies.

I can't be arsed to check whether it's still a possibility, but there was a combination of results that would mean English teams would all be in the CL or EL, and miss the horrors of the NWTREC altogether...
 
Brauny said:
I actually thought would it be better for Chelsea to beat Arsenal ?That way a draw between us and them would probably satisfy both. If Chelsea lost to Arsenal, they will be full on wanting to beat us.
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If Chelsea beat Arsenal, then we drop to 4th - hence we then become the team that Liverpool will want to catch.

In fact if Chelsea win, they might even think 2nd is possible (depending of course on the outcome of Man U / Liverpool match), so I can’t see them easing off for us in any instance.

So my view is we need Arsenal to show up tonight & for Man U to beat Liverpool.

Anyone else’s head hurting?!
 
shanetko said:
The present free market exchange price is 1.27/1.28 (2/7) Probability 78% of making it and 4.5 (7/2) that we don’t 22% chance. Margin or not it’s pretty close to the mark.

That doesn’t mean we will get in but on all known probability we would make top four 78 times out of 100 from present situation.

This is not gospel and people usually get captain hindsight after the fact on it but we are very strong favourites however you look at it. The odds aren’t wracked by superstition or pessimism.

That said at one stage we were 1/50 to make the top 4 last season 😃
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538 website, run by a former professional sports gambler, Nate Silver, who is very into Bayesian probabilities, and builds models for everything, has us as 80% likely to qualify from here. Wouldn't be surprised if the bookies use his site and model to help them adjust odds

538 Premier League Predictions
 
Mistryman said:
If Chelsea beat Arsenal, then we drop to 4th - hence we then become the team that Liverpool will want to catch.

In fact if Chelsea win, they might even think 2nd is possible (depending of course on the outcome of Man U / Liverpool match), so I can’t see them easing off for us in any instance.

So my view is we need Arsenal to show up tonight & for Man U to beat Liverpool.

Anyone else’s head hurting?!
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Yes I can understand the logic of Chelsea staying behind us, but my theory is based on what attitude a team might have when playing against us.
It worked a treat that Man United were prepared to sacrifice our game, in order to rest players for a bigger personal clash.
If Chelsea are almost there by beating Arsenal, it might MIGHT take the sting out of their game with us.
I don't think Chelsea will be that bothered about their final position so long as they qualify. They will be fully focused on us at Wembley and Man City in their other final.
Like you suggest, probably over thinking it all.
 
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