I realize that living in the US for 25 years and viewing it all at close quarters is no substitute for some dodgy youtube video but here's my take on the election.
I think it will be very very close.
The repubs and the dems have their solid states, they won't change.
It's obviously the battleground states that will be the key.
These tend to be more blue collar with manufacturing based employment. conservative with a small c.
Despite all his posturing, Trump has fckd these people over royally with his economic policies.
Promising things that he has never delivered.
The hardcore Trump cultists in these states will never waver; white, male, no college education.
The key demographics in these states are: women, POC, and christians turned off by his disgusting behavior for 4 years.
Enough of them have to switch to Biden for him to win.
And i think it's too close to call that.
The spanner in the ointment is early voting is skewed democrat, as they are, believe it or not, worried about violence at the polling stations on election day (like a fcking third world country), on the day, voting will be skewed towards republican.
So if the 'on the day' votes are counted first and he declares victory before mail votes have been counted and they try to get thousands of them thrown out, it will be chaos for days.
On the other hand if the mail in votes are counted first, the dems could have a big early lead that is then whittled down as the day goes on.
Either way we may not know the result tuesday, it may go on for days and end up at the supreme court like 2000, and then we'll be fckd.
and don't be surprised to see violence, already seen news reports of shops an stores boarding up for the next few days because they are worried.