LCFC XG. Game By Game. End of season.

S

shanetko

XG
These are numbers based on strength of chance creation both for and against game by game.
It’s far from an exact science but is taken very seriously by data analysts and the bookmaking industry.
Sometimes the results tally closely to the numbers. Not that often though. Football is just so variable by nature.
(Numbers provided by Infogol, other XG Merchants are available)



GAME 1
WOLVES (H)
XG LEICESTER 0.55 - WOLVES 1.66
Actual score 1-0

GAME 2
WEST HAM (A)
XG WEST HAM 2.57 - LEICESTER 0.86
Actual score 4-1

GAME 3
NORWICH (A)
XG NORWICH 1.63 - LEICESTER 1.45
Actual score 1-2

GAME 4
MAN CITY (H)
XG LEICESTER 0.81 - MAN CITY 3.02
Actual score 0-1

GAME 5
BRIGHTON (A)
XG BRIGHTON 1.55 - LEICESTER 1.40
Actual score 2-1

GAME 6
BURNLEY (H)
XG LEICESTER 1.90 - BURNLEY 0.54
Actual score 2-2

GAME 7
PALACE (A)
XG PALACE 1.30 - LEICESTER 0.91
Actual score 2-2

GAME 8
MAN UTD (H)
XG LEICESTER 2.78 - MAN UTD 1.14
Actual score 4-2

GAME 9
BRENTFORD (A)
XG BRENTFORD 1.39 - LEICESTER 1.01
Actual score 1-2

GAME 10
ARSENAL (H)
XG LEICESTER 2.10 - ARSENAL 0.93
Actual score 0-2

GAME 11
LEEDS (A)
XG LEEDS 1.79 - LEICESTER 1.03
Actual score 1-1

GAME 12
CHELSEA (H)
XG LEICESTER 0.45 - CHELSEA 2.44
Actual score 0-3

GAME 13
WATFORD (H)
XG LEICESTER 2.30 - WATFORD 3.05
Actual score 4-2

GAME 14
SOUTHAMPTON (A)
XG SOUTHAMPTON 2.16 - LEICESTER 1.76
Actual score 2-2

GAME 15
VILLA (A)
XG VILLA 2.23 - LEICESTER 1.01
Actual score 2-1

GAME 16
NEWCASTLE (H)
XG LEICESTER 2.15 - NEWCASTLE 0.75
Actual score 4-0

GAME 17
MAN CITY (A)
XG MAN CITY 4.17 - LEICESTER 2.59
Actual score 6-3

GAME 18
LIVERPOOL (H)
XG LEICESTER 0.75 - LIVERPOOL 2.50
Actual score 1-0

GAME 19
SPURS (H)
XG LEICESTER 1.94 - SPURS 4.68
Actual score 2-3

GAME 20
BRIGHTON (H)
XG LEICESTER 1.92 - BRIGHTON 1.30
Actual score 1-1

GAME 21
LIVERPOOL (A)
XG LIVERPOOL 3.30 - LEICESTER 0.46
Actual score 2-0

GAME 22
WEST HAM (H)
XG LEICESTER 1.43 - WEST HAM 0.81
Actual score 2-2

GAME 23
WOLVES (A)
XG WOLVES 0.67 - LEICESTER 1.43
Actual score 2-1

GAME 24
BURNLEY (A)
XG BURNLEY 1.42 - LEICESTER 1.97
Actual score 1-2

GAME 25
LEEDS (H)
XG LEICESTER 0.39 - LEEDS 2.15
Actual score 1-0

GAME 26
ARSENAL (A)
XG ARSENAL 3.04 - LEICESTER 0.62
Actual score 2-0

GAME 27
BRENTFORD (H)
XG LEICESTER 1.15 - BRENTFORD 1.67
Actual score 2-1

GAME 28
MAN UTD (A)
XG MAN UTD 1.16 - LEICESTER 1.22
Actual score 1-1

GAME 29
PALACE (H)
XG LEICESTER 0.75 - PALACE 1.67
Actual score 2-1

GAME 30
NEWCASTLE (A)
XG NEWCASTLE 2.38 - LEICESTER 0.60
Actual score 2-1

GAME 31
EVERTON (A)
XG EVERTON 1.72 - LEICESTER 0.83
Actual score 1-1

GAME 32
VILLA (H)
XG LEICESTER 0.26 - VILLA 0.65
Actual score 0-0

GAME 33
SPURS (A)
XG SPURS 1.79 - LEICESTER 0.32
Actual score 3-1

GAME 34
EVERTON (H)
XG LEICESTER 1.80 - EVERTON 1.66
Actual score 1-2

GAME 35
NORWICH (H)
XG LEICESTER 2.36 - NORWICH 1.66
Actual score 3-0

GAME 36
WATFORD (A)
XG WATFORD 2.06 - LEICESTER 2.00
Actual score 1-5

GAME 37
CHELSEA (A)
XG CHELSEA 1.71 - LEICESTER 0.06
Actual score 1-1

GAME 38
SOUTHAMPTON (H)
XG LEICESTER 3.36 - SOUTHAMPTON 1.18
Actual score 4-1
 
hackneyfox said:
Don’t we have one of the lowest XG yet we are the 5th highest scorers?
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No, we have one of the lowest Xpoints totals. We got a lot more points than the shot data suggested we should have.

It’s a two way street XG as it’s not just what you create it’s what you’re coughing up aswell , the opposition have generally created better chances than us we’ve been far deadlier in front of goal.
 
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All this data analysis and XG is bollox anyway. I really hate it when player stats are shown on the screens half way through a game. Only one stat matters. Goals scored. Forget all the other shit dreamt up by twats with nothing better to do wit their dull lives.
 
wints said:
All this data analysis and XG is bollox anyway. I really hate it when player stats are shown on the screens half way through a game. Only one stat matters. Goals scored. Forget all the other shit dreamt up by twats with nothing better to do wit their dull lives.
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Well done again. Was your response that prompted to delete it last time.

If you don’t like it, ignore it.

Off back to my dull life with fuck all better in it.
 
wints said:
All this data analysis and XG is bollox anyway. I really hate it when player stats are shown on the screens half way through a game. Only one stat matters. Goals scored. Forget all the other shit dreamt up by twats with nothing better to do wit their dull lives.
Click to expand...
And why do they put it on the screen when the ball is in the same fucking place?
 
shanetko said:
Well done again. Was your response that prompted to delete it last time.

If you don’t like it, ignore it.

Off back to my dull life with fuck all better in it.
Click to expand...
Just giving my opinion. Its all a load of bollox. And I didnt say you were dull anyway, Read it again Shane. I said it was dreamt up by dullards.

Also didnt know you had deleted it before. No need on my behalf. Say what you want , but this is a message board for debate, and Ive given my opinion. If you dont like it , just ignore it.
 
wints said:
Just giving my opinion. Its all a load of bollox. And I didnt say you were dull anyway, Read it again Shane. I said it was dreamt up by dullards.

Also didnt know you had deleted it before. No need on my behalf. Say what you want , but this is a message board for debate, and Ive given my opinion. If you dont like it , just ignore it.
Click to expand...
The last point is a fair one and taken on board.

However given I am clearly an advocate of data science and given I spent a lot of time compiling this list, it’s pretty clearly a damning indictment of me. Which is fine. I am a dull cunt to be fair.

This board full of intelligent open minded people yet nobody can see the difference between a few hastily put together numbers on a TV screen and detailed analysis that plays a big part in how some football teams operate and how bookmakers arrive at their prices. It astounds me. If the scoreline is the only thing that matters, Peter Taylor was doing a cracking job at the March point of 2000/2001 season.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1492805245763608579

Lucky Leicester, bad luck Burnley?​

  • Burnley: Infogol position: 17th | Actual position: 18th
  • Leicester: Infogol position: 18th | Actual position: 8th
  • Watford: Infogol position: 19th | Actual position: 19th
  • Norwich: Infogol position: 20th | Actual position: 20th
Can Burnley feel aggrieved to have been relegated? Well it depends on how monastic you are in your view that data and performance trumps all.

Leicester are by far the biggest overperformers this season when it comes to results versus underlying numbers. If this proves to be a one-off, Brendan Rodgers deserves praise for overcoming what has been a season of incredible injury strife to drag the Foxes to eighth. If not, they could be in serious trouble.

Rodgers himself has openly said they need an overhaul this summer to arrest the decline they suffered in 21/22, with defensive performance particularly poor.
 
Wow, that's quite something!

I hope this isn't lost at the level of Rudkin, Whelan and perhaps even Top. If Rodgers doesn't get this sorted by autumn the pressure will be on for him!
 
I think it’s interesting. I don’t go into it in too much detail but it’s good to see the science is aligned with what we’re seeing on the pitch.
 
Can't think why we might have had a poor defensive record this season?
Just proves even more, that without all those injuries (including Vardy) - we would have been in Europe again.
 
shanetko said:
I’ve admitted I’m a dull cunt. Not sure what else I can add.
Click to expand...
You’ve admitted you’re dull Shane. I admitted I’m a sad bastard on the safe standing thread I started after Chelsea last week.

We know what we are. We embrace it. Everyone else is just hiding away and pretending to be someone they’re not.

😆👍
 
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