But Liverpool...

Brauny said:
Yes I can understand the logic of Chelsea staying behind us, but my theory is based on what attitude a team might have when playing against us.
It worked a treat that Man United were prepared to sacrifice our game, in order to rest players for a bigger personal clash.
If Chelsea are almost there by beating Arsenal, it might MIGHT take the sting out of their game with us.
I don't think Chelsea will be that bothered about their final position so long as they qualify. They will be fully focused on us at Wembley and Man City in their other final.
Like you suggest, probably over thinking it all.
Click to expand...
My worst nightmare is Liverpool pipping us on goal difference with a goal in last minute of last game
 
Brauny said:
It worked a treat that Man United were prepared to sacrifice our game, in order to rest players for a bigger personal clash.
Click to expand...
I feel this is simply not true though.
If we were man u’s opponent’s tomorrow & Liverpool had played them last night ole would not have done anything different with his choice of teams as he is doing.
It is just common sense in the scenario of these 3 games in 6 days that you’d play your strongest available team in the 1st & 3rd games. Any manager of any club would do the same.
 
The two late equalisers Liverpool conceded v Leeds and Newcastle could prove extremely valuable... but either way everything is still in our hands!!
 
Bradnor said:
538 website, run by a former professional sports gambler, Nate Silver, who is very into Bayesian probabilities, and builds models for everything, has us as 80% likely to qualify from here. Wouldn't be surprised if the bookies use his site and model to help them adjust odds

538 Premier League Predictions
Click to expand...
Think Nate Silver is a prat when it comes to football he thinks his modelling translates into anything.

He thought Brazil should be 5/4 to win the 2014 World Cup when the general market was around 3/1-7/2. Even if they’d won every game and cruised to the trophy, he was monumentally wrong about the true price.

Match prices (close to the start time) are driven by the big Asian Syndicates which Tony Bloom has a large hand in. Stuff like this and other ante posts the market isn’t quite as solid and efficient on and there is more scope for error.
 
essingtonblue said:
I feel this is simply not true though.
If we were man u’s opponent’s tomorrow & Liverpool had played them last night ole would not have done anything different with his choice of teams as he is doing.
It is just common sense in the scenario of these 3 games in 6 days that you’d play your strongest available team in the 1st & 3rd games. Any manager of any club would do the same.
Click to expand...


I beg to differ. Man United knew the title was gone before these 3 games. They also knew that their CL place was in the bag. You can't underestimate how important the Liverpool clash is to the Mancs. I believe if the scouse fixture was the 2nd of the 3, and given their title and CL objectives were as good as decided, they would of gone strong for Liverpool.
 
shanetko said:
Think Nate Silver is a prat when it comes to football he thinks his modelling translates into anything.

He thought Brazil should be 5/4 to win the 2014 World Cup when the general market was around 3/1-7/2. Even if they’d won every game and cruised to the trophy, he was monumentally wrong about the true price.

Match prices (close to the start time) are driven by the big Asian Syndicates which Tony Bloom has a large hand in. Stuff like this and other ante posts the market isn’t quite as solid and efficient on and there is more scope for error.
Click to expand...
Interesting Shane. I suspect you know much more about this than me.

Silver I believe made his initial fortune betting on basketball and baseball, particularly the former. It is a fair while since I read the Signal and the Noise, and now I can't recall the details.

It is probably correct that football is too unpredictable to make good regular money - what would have been the price for 4-2 to Newcastle half an hour before kick-off?
 
Bradnor said:
Interesting Shane. I suspect you know much more about this than me.

Silver I believe made his initial fortune betting on basketball and baseball, particularly the former. It is a fair while since I read the Signal and the Noise, and now I can't recall the details.

It is probably correct that football is too unpredictable to make good regular money - what would have been the price for 4-2 to Newcastle half an hour before kick-off?
Click to expand...
Have respect for him and what he tries to do he’s obviously very clever and talented but I think he tries to cover too many different things.
 
I think big unlikely scores like that only get to 66-1 or 80-1 on Bet365, in most cases. Sometimes 100-1...
 
There’s so many variables it’s impossible to predict. Will Man U beat Liverpool? Will they also win their remaining games? Will Chelsea test players against us to focus on the Champions League final? How will they fare tonight v Arsenal? Will Spurs need or want anything for a European place? Will Kane look up hammer a few goals before he leaves them?

0-1 at half time, interesting.
 
shanetko said:
Presently 350/1 For them at home to Man C
Click to expand...
Man City – fair enough.
I wouldn't expect most other teams to get beyond what I usually see. What's Brighton – WestHam, for instance? Even with Brighton's piss-poor scoring record...
 
DagenhamFox said:
There’s so many variables it’s impossible to predict. Will Man U beat Liverpool? Will they also win their remaining games? Will Chelsea test players against us to focus on the Champions League final? How will they fare tonight v Arsenal? Will Spurs need or want anything for a European place? Will Kane look up hammer a few goals before he leaves them?

0-1 at half time, interesting.
Click to expand...
I've concluded that it's marginally healthier for my BP to concentrate all my worry and angst on our last three games, rather than suffer additional stress during other teams' games as well 🤞
 
Filbo65 said:
Man City – fair enough.
I wouldn't expect most other teams to get beyond what I usually see. What's Brighton – WestHam, for instance? Even with Brighton's piss-poor scoring record...
Click to expand...
I know but we were 4/11 to beat them. Man City 1/4 so 80% v 73%ish and both games had decently high goal expectancies. Brighton hammers too evenly matched teams prices wise and lower overall goal expectancy. If its 350/1 v Man C I concluded 200-250/1 would seem to correlate roughly. Either way its a big old price and I'll stop boring people by quoting noncey percentages :D
 
Strange things odds. Wouldn't particularly fancy WBA to bt Liverpool at home sunday but earlier today they were 12/1 on the betfair exchange. I certainly wouldn't want to lay that with Liverpool's current central defensive pairing.
 
Sarge's predictions comp on here shows how fucking useless most of us Roofers are at knowing what'll happen in games of football... :)
 
Ibbo said:
If Liverpool win at Man Utd, does that make them favourites to get 4th place ?
I think it probably does, as they have West brom, Burnley, C.Palace to follow.
Am I wrong ?
Click to expand...
So Liverpool have won easily at Man Utd. I hear what you guys are saying. But Liverpool looked to be right back to there best. I now am sure in my own mind that Liverpool will make the top 4, And unless Chelsea's slip up we will finish 5th. Sorry but that's my honest opinion.
 
Ibbo said:
So Liverpool have won easily at Man Utd. I hear what you guys are saying. But Liverpool looked to be right back to there best. I now am sure in my own mind that Liverpool will make the top 4, And unless Chelsea's slip up we will finish 5th. Sorry but that's my honest opinion.
Click to expand...
Simple, beat Chelsea in the league, Champions league place.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top