No hot balls then.

ClaphamFox said:
Why did it surprise you? Those draws were just as statistically likely as any other.
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Why? So often it’s mentioned they warm some of the balls to keep the bigger teams apart. Maybe it’s always been a fair draw. It seems like the one on Wednesday was.
 
DagenhamFox said:
Why? So often it’s mentioned they warm some of the balls to keep the bigger teams apart. Maybe it’s always been a fair draw. It seems like the one on Wednesday was.
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A few years ago I read an article in which somebody had actually analysed FA Cup draws going back decades. They compared the number of times the bug clubs have been drawn against each other in earlier rounds to the statistical likelihood of that happening. The result? It turns out that big clubs are drawn against each other at exactly the rate that you’d expect based on probabilities.

In other words, the ‘hot ball’ claim is nonsense - at least as far as the FA Cup is concerned.
 
ClaphamFox said:
A few years ago I read an article in which somebody had actually analysed FA Cup draws going back decades. They compared the number of times the bug clubs have been drawn against each other in earlier rounds to the statistical likelihood of that happening. The result? It turns out that big clubs are drawn against each other at exactly the rate that you’d expect based on probabilities.

In other words, the ‘hot ball’ claim is nonsense - at least as far as the FA Cup is concerned.
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My guess is that it's a relatively recent innovation, probably instigated by the money men who want maximum global value from their huge fees for the TV rights / sponsorship. So a survey going back decades will likely be different results to say the last 15 years......
 
TopFox said:
My guess is that it's a relatively recent innovation, probably instigated by the money men who want maximum global value from their huge fees for the TV rights / sponsorship. So a survey going back decades will likely be different results to say the last 15 years......
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I’d still prefer to see some actual evidence of it. If anybody is convinced the big teams are avoiding each other more than in the past, it should be pretty easy to prove by analysing the early round draws of the past 15 years.
 
TopFox said:
My guess is that it's a relatively recent innovation, probably instigated by the money men who want maximum global value from their huge fees for the TV rights / sponsorship. So a survey going back decades will likely be different results to say the last 15 years......
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Oh Nooooo!!! Its Topfox.
 
ClaphamFox said:
I’d still prefer to see some actual evidence of it. If anybody is convinced the big teams are avoiding each other more than in the past, it should be pretty easy to prove by analysing the early round draws of the past 15 years.
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I think the idea is that it leaves no evidence... :)
 
ClaphamFox said:
You can’t rig something that is provable statistically and leave no evidence 😂
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No, I was just pointing out that you won't get any evidence, just the lingering suspicion amongst the cynical types that draws can be tweaked to suit the clubs that the TV companies want to keep apart so that the semis / Final have wider BCC-centred appeal, etc.
Mind you, my only doubt about the whole habit is whether some of the cunts they get to do the draws can tell the difference between hot and cold, or remember which they're meant to be taking / avoiding...
 
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