Bollocks to Boris

[Adumass]

why are people saying deaths are in the UK are "about average"??? they are clearly way above average. you can pick out the odd year, but thats the point of a 5 year rolling average.

massively above average in the first lockdown. then dropping just below average in the summer, but now significantly above average again.

 

[BarrowFox]

The ONS shows that, over the year so far, deaths in the UK are about average. This includes the peak earlier in the year when the virus was allowed to run through the care homes.

Until a few weeks ago the total deaths for 2020 were below 2018 (year so far) though the deaths have overtaken the numbers for 2018 in recent weeks. We are being told that this is the 'second wave'.

However the recent weekly increase compared with 2018 may be because there was no early flu season that year (viral or regular) or rather more controversially, significantly reduced treatment for patients with non-covid related illnesses during the last 8 months or so. Deaths from cancer and heart disease are both up compared to the norm.

So I've been on the ons site and I'm afraid your version of events seems completely wrong, could I ask where you found the claim that deaths for 2020 were no higher than the average of the last 5 years, because you clearly didn't get it from the ONS.

 

[Foxgolfer]

There’s a vicious virus circulating . It infects people mainly in close confined space . So try not to infect yourself or other people by confining yourself with others inside. Then the virus won’t spread so much and we might be able to gradually get back to how things were . Which we will by early summer. It really isn’t hard to understand

 

[AFCDorset]

I said that until recently deaths were lover than in 2018, I also said that they have increased in the last few weeks. this is from data on the ONS.

Recent increases are being reported as a 'second wave' but given that the NHS has failed to treat many non covid patients they may well be due to cancer, heart disease and other serious illnesses.

Death rates vary all the time for any number of different reasons, excessive deaths this year are within 5% of the 5 year average and there is no evidence that this is primarily to do with covid.

 

[Daz40]

Is it me or is Richardvanles sounded more and more like bnet with his ramblings

 

[Billsballbag]

Nobody has yet told me a decent reason as to why the vulnerable aren’t given time slots to go about their lives independent to the rest of us.

Free run of the shops and pubs when the majority are at work or school. Protected at weekends and peak hours.

 

[hackneyfox]

I told you my opinion, they'd be overrun by those who don't give a toss about any else let alone distancing.

 

[Richardvanles]

There’s a vicious virus circulating . It infects people mainly in close confined space . So try not to infect yourself or other people by confining yourself with others inside. Then the virus won’t spread so much and we might be able to gradually get back to how things were . Which we will by early summer. It really isn’t hard to understand

Yes so vicious we're sending our kids to school to take home this vicious virus to their parents and grandparents.
So vicious the only way to detect it is to have a test.
So vicious most folk still have to go to work and mix with other folk yet can't see members of their family.
So vicious you can do pretty much anything you want except go to the pub and have friends and family in your house.
You lot are becoming parodies of yourselves.

 

[Running Fox]

Was that the one that included the chart put together by the Covid-denier who goes by the name statistics guy?

No

 

[Running Fox]

Why is there so much anger on here? People can believe what they want without hating those that disagree. We are all in this together if your worried about the virus take care of yourselves in any way you choose. But do not abuse and hate those that question the line that is fed to us.

 

[Club_B00k_Crutchless]

No

Which one was it then because it was wrong.

 

[Running Fox]

Which one was it then because it was wrong.

Check out the mail on line today, gives a detailed account of the figures. apart from the early spike figures are now down on last year and less people in Hospital beds. up to you what you believe? There are stats on line to prove both sides of opinion.

 

[BarrowFox]

I said that until recently deaths were lover than in 2018, I also said that they have increased in the last few weeks. this is from data on the ONS.

Recent increases are being reported as a 'second wave' but given that the NHS has failed to treat many non covid patients they may well be due to cancer, heart disease and other serious illnesses.

Death rates vary all the time for any number of different reasons, excessive deaths this year are within 5% of the 5 year average and there is no evidence that this is primarily to do with covid.

so, again i ask where you came across this data, because I've looked at the ONS data and you appear to be wrong, deaths in 2020 when compared to the 5 year average are running 13.6% above that average, you also appear to be wrong about your cherry picked 2018 reference, where 2020 deaths have been higher than 2018 since April?

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	total
											vs 5yavg
2020	56,706	43,653	49,723	88,153	52,374	42,624	40,780	37,187	42,500	455,720	13.6%​
2019	53,910	45,795	43,944	44,121	44,389	38,603	42,308	38,843	40,011	393,943	-1.8%​
2018	64,154	49,177	51,229	46,469	42,784	39,767	40,723	40,192	37,137	413,650	3.1%​
2017	57,368	47,766	48,664	39,101	44,279	42,175	38,425	41,074	40,095	400,964	0.0%​
2016	47,457	46,021	48,665	46,856	41,384	42,012	38,983	40,786	40,367	394,547	-1.6%​
2015	60,891	46,721	47,895	45,178	39,343	42,082	40,512	36,199	41,573	402,409	0.3%​
	283,780​	235,480​	240,397​	221,725​	212,179​	204,639​	200,951​	197,094​	199,183​	2,005,513​
5yr/ave	56756​	47096​	48079​	44345​	42436​	40928​	40190​	39419​	39837​	401103​

 

[Club_B00k_Crutchless]

Check out the mail on line today, gives a detailed account of the figures. apart from the early spike figures are now down on last year and less people in Hospital beds. up to you what you believe? There are stats on line to prove both sides of opinion.

Pretty good timing the post below yours. people like statsguy incorrectly add population growth to work out their 'stats', perhaps deliberately but ONS figures would usually be pretty reliable, never mind any slant on on stats published by media with an axe to grind.

 

[Running Fox]

Pretty good timing the post below yours. people like statsguy incorrectly add population growth to work out their 'stats', perhaps deliberately but ONS figures would usually be pretty reliable, never mind any slant on on stats published by media with an axe to grind.

Yes because all the Hospitals are full and people are falling down dead around us. This is no more than a bad flue bug, but its going to have repercussions on all of us for years to come. The death rate will increase but not with covid but the consequences of the lockdown.

 

[AFCDorset]

so, again i ask where you came across this data, because I've looked at the ONS data and you appear to be wrong, deaths in 2020 when compared to the 5 year average are running 13.6% above that average, you also appear to be wrong about your cherry picked 2018 reference, where 2020 deaths have been higher than 2018 since April?

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	total
											vs 5yavg
2020	56,706	43,653	49,723	88,153	52,374	42,624	40,780	37,187	42,500	455,720	13.6%​
2019	53,910	45,795	43,944	44,121	44,389	38,603	42,308	38,843	40,011	393,943	-1.8%​
2018	64,154	49,177	51,229	46,469	42,784	39,767	40,723	40,192	37,137	413,650	3.1%​
2017	57,368	47,766	48,664	39,101	44,279	42,175	38,425	41,074	40,095	400,964	0.0%​
2016	47,457	46,021	48,665	46,856	41,384	42,012	38,983	40,786	40,367	394,547	-1.6%​
2015	60,891	46,721	47,895	45,178	39,343	42,082	40,512	36,199	41,573	402,409	0.3%​
	283,780​	235,480​	240,397​	221,725​	212,179​	204,639​	200,951​	197,094​	199,183​	2,005,513​
5yr/ave	56756​	47096​	48079​	44345​	42436​	40928​	40190​	39419​	39837​	401103​

Thank you for taking the time to reproduce the figures, they are different to the ones that I saw but I am happy to take them at face value. I have looked into them further and they have helped clarify my thinking.

It is quite clear that the bulk of the extra deaths occurred in April and the beginning of May, the 'peak' if you will. Outside of this the death rate is very much around the average.

I believe that the 'peak' was engineered by the release of infected and untested elderly people back into care homes where, by and large left untreated, many of them died. Sadly some would have died anyway but there was an opportunity to minimise deaths through isolation and treatment but there was no attempt to do that.

Additionally the lock down in the NHS will have impacted on the death rate and the consequences are not measured anywhere that I can see. Anecdotal evidence should always be taken with a grain or two of salt but the effect that the extra NHS delays have had on my heart condition, and still are having, is pretty unpleasant.

I think that It is pretty clear that, among the general population, covid itself has had a minimal effect, yes it is real but it is nothing like the pandemic it has been portrayed as and, most importantly, not remotely serious enough to justify trashing the economy and wrecking our way of life.

 

[BarrowFox]

Yes because all the Hospitals are full and people are falling down dead around us. This is no more than a bad flue bug, but its going to have repercussions on all of us for years to come. The death rate will increase but not with covid but the consequences of the lockdown.

So, you said: apart from the early spike figures are now down on last year, which doesn't appear to be true.

Not only that, it translates as "if you ignore the dead people, no one died"

undoubtedly there's a debate to be had about the actions taken by the Government in the handling of this situation, but honestly it does your cause no good to misrepresent the numbers

 

[hackneyfox]

I believe that the 'peak' was engineered by the release of infected and untested elderly people back into care homes

That's a very big claim, that or more signs of your paranoia.

 

[SardiniaFox]

That's a very big claim, that or more signs of your paranoia.

Personally I believe it was Government incompetence rather than a malicious act.

 

[AFCDorset]

That's a very big claim, that or more signs of your paranoia.

Personally I believe it was Government incompetence rather than a malicious act.

It was one or the other.

There is no debate that it happened, infected and untested patients were released to care homes and this caused the bulk of the deaths during the peak.
Treatment was not given, isolation was minimal and DNR orders were encouraged. If this was not deliberate (to some degree) it was callous incompetence on a monumental scale.

I have no evidence one way or another but given the economic and social destruction that has been inflicted on very many ordinary people, thinking that it was deliberate is not that big a stretch.

(For a paranoid like me anyway...)

 

[hackneyfox]

No, it's a huge stretch based on nothing but your paranoia.
They definitely made a mess of it but absolutely no reason to believe it was 'engineered'.

 

[AFCDorset]

No, it's a huge stretch based on nothing but your paranoia.
They definitely made a mess of it but absolutely no reason to believe it was 'engineered'.

They 'engineered' it without a doubt, it was deliberate government policy to release infected and untested patients into the care homes. This actually happened.

You seem to be suggesting that they had no idea of the consequences, I find that difficult to believe. Perhaps the deaths were rather higher than they expected but remember, back then they were talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths across the country.

There is also no explanation why there was minimal isolation, no treatment and pressure to include covid as COD wherever possible. I find all this pretty compelling.

 

[Running Fox]

So, you said: apart from the early spike figures are now down on last year, which doesn't appear to be true.

Not only that, it translates as "if you ignore the dead people, no one died"

undoubtedly there's a debate to be had about the actions taken by the Government in the handling of this situation, but honestly it does your cause no good to misrepresent the numbers

I think the only people fabricating numbers are the government putting all care home deaths as covid and recording deaths within 28 days of a test as a covid death.

 

[hackneyfox]

Hundreds of thousand of deaths????
Think they mentioned something like 100k 'if' we did nothing. If we took steps 'we'd be doing well to keep the numbers under 20,000'.

Where do you get your information from?

 

[hackneyfox]

I think the only people fabricating numbers are the government putting all care home deaths as covid and recording deaths within 28 days of a test as a covid death.

First time I've agreed with you, the figure was reduced by applying the 28 day rule.
Government applied this in line with other countries, still plenty of people who have died after 28 days due to Covid.

 

[AFCDorset]

Hundreds of thousand of deaths????
Think they mentioned something like 100k 'if' we did nothing. If we took steps 'we'd be doing well to keep the numbers under 20,000'.

Where do you get your information from?

Neill Ferguson of Imperial College, a government advisor predicted over 500,000 deaths as a worst case scenario.

He also inferred that this pandemic could be on the scale of the Antonine plague or the Black Death. Complete nonsense but it was said.

 

[Running Fox]

First time I've agreed with you, the figure was reduced by applying the 28 day rule.
Government applied this in line with other countries, still plenty of people who have died after 28 days due to Covid.

people that died after 28 days of testing will still have been put down as a covid death if its do to covid doh

 

[hackneyfox]

people that died after 28 days of testing will still have been put down as a covid death if its do to covid doh

Really?

Public Health England has changed its definition of deaths: here’s what it means - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

Carl Heneghan, Jason Oke Public Health England has changed its definition of deaths. The new definition is now death in

www.cebm.net

 

[Running Fox]

Really?

Public Health England has changed its definition of deaths: here’s what it means - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

Carl Heneghan, Jason Oke Public Health England has changed its definition of deaths. The new definition is now death in

www.cebm.net

If someone dies whatever the time frame from covid then it gos down as a covid death. Although I have a work mate whos Farther in law died of a Heart attack ( never had a test ever ) his death certificate said covid. we can argue forever but we will not agree do to our belief structure. lets just see were all this leads because my worry is what happens next?

 

[tudor_fox]

Walk down Oxford street any Saturday between now & Xmas - Fine
Take a ride on the tube during rush hour - No problem
Do some xmas shopping in a packed department store in London or Liverpool - Feel free

Invite a few chosen relatives around for a small get together -- You're having a laugh
Go for a drink in a sleepy Leicestershire village pub or tea rooms - No fucking chance